Simplicius: Serious Escalation: Russian MOD Implies Threatening Consequences Against Europe for Being Party to Conflict

by Simplicius

It has slowly become increasingly apparent that Ukraine may be utilizing the airspace of NATO countries for its recent spate of strikes against Russia. Specifically, it is the permissive Baltics that appear to be allowing Ukrainian drones to transit toward sensitive Russian sites near the Gulf of Finland and beyond, then blaming Russia when the drones crash on their territory.

Read the below—the Latvian ministry literally admitted the drone that crashed on its territory was Ukrainian, but proceeded to blame Russia anyway:

Drones have been recovered in the following locations which has led people to assume the flightpath from Ukraine as follows:

This would explain the so-called Russian “lack of air defense”. For a couple years now it has been obvious that most Ukrainian “deep penetration” attacks that were said to have bypassed Russian air defenses were actually done via some form of subversion—whether local man-on-ground drone teams or something like the above.

From the end of March:

As fo this writing, another has hit Estonia:

Another Ukrainian drone fell in Estonia, — Postimees

▪️The drone’s debris was found on the beach near the village of Turbuneeme.

➖”It’s likely that these are the debris of a drone of Ukrainian origin”, — the publication writes.

▪️The Estonian police did not comment on whether any explosive substances were found.

Other drones have struck Finland:

It is to be assumed—and is being assumed—by the Russian side that these Baltic-NATO states are assisting Ukraine in these strikes by either turning a blind eye to the passage of Ukrainian drones over their territory, or outright facilitating the entire operation. They only make rudimentary statements to media when the drones happen to crash on their territory and some response is absolutely necessary—wherein they simply sweep it under the rug or blame Russia.

But now the situation has turned more critical and dangerous. The Russian Defense Ministry has released a new report citing dozens of key facilities in Western nations which are creating a veritable “rear” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, by manufacturing drones and other armaments for Ukraine.As fo this writing, another has hit Estonia:

Another Ukrainian drone fell in Estonia, — Postimees

▪️The drone’s debris was found on the beach near the village of Turbuneeme.

➖”It’s likely that these are the debris of a drone of Ukrainian origin”, — the publication writes.

▪️The Estonian police did not comment on whether any explosive substances were found.

Other drones have struck Finland:

It is to be assumed—and is being assumed—by the Russian side that these Baltic-NATO states are assisting Ukraine in these strikes by either turning a blind eye to the passage of Ukrainian drones over their territory, or outright facilitating the entire operation. They only make rudimentary statements to media when the drones happen to crash on their territory and some response is absolutely necessary—wherein they simply sweep it under the rug or blame Russia.

But now the situation has turned more critical and dangerous. The Russian Defense Ministry has released a new report citing dozens of key facilities in Western nations which are creating a veritable “rear” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, by manufacturing drones and other armaments for Ukraine.

The key part of the official statement reads:

We view this decision as a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military-political trend across the entire European continent and the gradual transformation of these countries into Ukraine’s strategic rear.

The full list of the companies and their addresses was then published by the Russian MOD, which clearly implies something.

What is that something, you ask? Dmitry Medvedev, in his usual fashion, elucidated it with a follow up post:

It doesn’t get any clearer than that.

What is most startling is that this comes amidst new reports of Trump seeking to “punish” NATO countries for their lack of support for his failed Iran war by pulling US troops out of select European countries. From WSJ:

The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the U.S. military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the U.S. from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress.

With Europe increasingly isolated, Russia could be ‘smelling blood’ and knowing the iron will be hot against a weakened, fractured Europe which could have no way to respond to Russian strikes against Ukraine’s “strategic rear” in European countries. Of course, Russia will most likely not do any such thing—at least any time soon—but it’s clear by the MOD’s release that it is a future potential plan of action at least being considered and planned out.

This has culminated with Shoigu releasing an eye-opening statement implying that Russia will have a UN Charter-granted right to respond militarily and in self-defense against the Baltics for allowing Ukraine to use their territory to strike Russia:

“This can occur in two cases: either Western air defense systems are highly ineffective, as has already been seen during the developments in the Middle East, or the states in question are deliberately providing their airspace, that is, acting as direct accomplices in aggression against Russia. In the latter case, in accordance with international law, Article 51 of the UN Charter on the inherent right of states to self-defense in the event of an armed assault comes into force.”

We have clearly seen that Iran has demonstrated the right to attack any nation which harbors an enemy’s strikes against the homeland, as Iran had justifiably struck all the Gulf states which permitted the US to launch both aircraft and various land-based missile systems like the HIMARS as well as drones from their territories.

It has also been seen last week that Russia began escorting its “shadow fleet” oil tankers with warships through the English Channel, which was characterized as some kind of ‘grave provocation’ against the UK and NATO.

The Russian frigate of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Grigorovich secured the oil tankers Universal and Enigma while passing through the English Channel. This was reported by The Telegraph newspaper.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also noted that the Russian side would take measures to protect interests in the event of the seizure of domestic tankers in the waters.

Perhaps cowed by Russia’s latest bold actions, France has resigned to releasing a tanker it had captured a month ago:

France has cancelled the arrest of the tanker Deyna, which was heading from Russia under a Mozambican flag and was seized on March 20, and released it, according to the prefecture.

Previously, France had already released seized vessels. Recently, Sweden also released a seized vessel.

Estonia refused to detain vessels, and Britain prohibited its military ships from blocking the Russian merchant fleet in the English Channel.

But the provocations from the West are not slowing down. A slew of recent articles has spilled out accusing Russia of various “nefarious” plots.

Sweden’s military chief claimed Russia could seize one of the “400,000 islands in the Baltic Sea” in order to somehow “test” NATO’s so-called “resolve”:

Russia may seize Swedish islands to test NATO’s defenses, says Sweden’s military chief

▪️Russia could launch a “small naval operation” to find “cracks” in the Alliance, Klasson assures.

▪️The islands in question are Gotland and Bornholm in the Baltic Sea.

▪️According to Swedish intelligence, Russia could be ready for a full-scale attack to establish air and sea dominance in 5 years.

▪️This is relevant against the backdrop of Trump’s rhetoric about reducing support for Europe.

▪️Earlier, the Swedish military already named Gotland as a likely target for a surprise landing operation.

➖”The end of the war in Ukraine won’t mean peace. Russia will try to restore the USSR,” the Swedish military chief concluded.

Meanwhile, Estonia is claiming Putin is planning an invasion:

“Putin is preparing to invade Estonia, he has received permission to send troops abroad to protect Russians - The Times Estonia is a member of a NATO, it will trigger article 5 of a NATO code.

This is the same Russia that is supposedly so bogged down in the Ukrainian war that its economy is in tatters, Putin’s rule is crumbling, and all the rest.

What is true, however, is that the Russian Duma has passed the first reading of a bill which “would allow the Russian military to operate “extraterritorially” to protect Russian citizens abroad, the Russian state news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti reported.”

Impartial Russian outlet Kommersant has suggested that this bill’s true purpose could actually be tied to protecting Russian shadow fleet tankers:

On March 10, the Government Commission on Legislative Activities approved a draft law developed by the Ministry of Defense on the use of the Russian Armed Forces to protect Russian citizens who have been persecuted by foreign or international courts. Experts believe that this may be a legislative framework for the protection of merchant ships, but Russian naval forces do not have sufficient resources for regular convoys.

One Russian commentator from the article makes a good point—one of the reasons could be as a backlash against the recent provocative trend in Western nations to detain Russian citizens on trumped-up charges as political prisoners merely to put pressure on Russia or create an atmosphere of tension:

As for Russia’s threats toward the Baltics for allowing the passage of Ukrainian drones, Maria Zakharova said the following:

Moscow has formally warned Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia against allowing Ukraine to send drones via their territory, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last week. “If the regimes in these countries are smart enough, they will listen. If not, then they will have to deal with the consequences,” she said.

This issue is becoming particularly critical for Russia because Ukraine’s war strategy has shifted almost entirely to drones. A recent statistic from a Business Insider correspondent states that in the last month, 96% of all Russian casualties had come by way of drones:

A new RT piece highlights the significance.

A dispersed European industry is powering long-range attacks – and reshaping the nature of the war

The article implies that Ukraine’s domestic drone industry is essentially one of “assembly”—taking parts actually manufactured entirely in Europe for the battlefield.

Ukraine has been virtually hollowed out, has no more funding, and has its entire armed forces now hoisted up by the European and Western “strategic rear”, which produces Ukraine’s drone industry. If we are to believe the earlier statistic, this means Europe is now essentially providing for the vast majority of Russian casualties on the battlefield.

For Russia, this situation is thus existential. It needs to find a way to hinder this “untouchable” Ukrainian “rear”. And the only way may turn out to be via strikes. There is likely a reason we saw the Oreshnik used on Lvov, right on NATO’s borders, as Russia has been trying to send a message to Europe that it may soon be left with no choice but to take out this “strategic rear” by any means necessary, just as Iran was forced to do in its recent conflict.

What should Russia do?

Discuss below.

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