So you want to blockade Iran . . .

by Matt Bracken

For the record, I am not pro-woodchipper, or pro-porcupine, or pro-Iran. I am trying to keep the potentially coming Great Energy World War sea battles in the realm of reality, and not a recurring fantasy of our Navy’s glory days of WW2.

This coming sea war will not be Tom Cruise in Top Gun slapping around Grenada, Panama, Libya or Venezuela. Iran can bite back.

Already, we have exposed our inability to close with Iran. Sending 2 destroyers dashing in and back out while VP Vance was in Pakistan engaged in negotiations with Iran merely highlighted our reluctance to bring our main force near to Iran. This will have repercussions across Asia, and around the world, as nations realize that when push comes to shove, they will be not be able to depend on the US Navy to ride to their rescue.

You may be sure that Chairman Xi is paying close attention to the effectiveness of our weapon systems, as well as their weaknesses, and our dangerously low “magazine capacity” as we run out of defensive missiles and standoff offensive missiles.

The US Navy exited the Persian Gulf shortly before our sneak attack on February 28. I wonder how our Gulf allies feel about the American defense umbrella now? We split just before the Persian Gulf became a two-way missile range.

All of Trump’s bravado about forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, and blockading ships exiting the Persian Gulf must be seen in light of our fear of approaching Iran.

And can you imagine that US Navy SEALs are going to fast-rope onto Chinese-flagged tankers, soon to be escorted by Chinese warships? If that happens, “Hello, World War.”

Some myopic morons are currently celebrating the increased global demand for U.S. gas and oil. This is a stupid and self-defeating take.

1. The increased demand is going to push U.S. inflation higher and higher, compounding our own economic problems, and

2. The world is not going to be happy to buy gas and oil at higher cost from the “mafia arsonist” who figuratively burned down all the competing gas stations in town. We are turning the entire world against America, and this will come back to haunt us.

3. Countries from France to Japan are now cutting deals with Iran to secure Strait of Hormuz passage for their tankers. They are paying in crypto and Yuan, killing the Petro Dollar, and sealing the fate of the USD as the world reserve currency.

Iran can afford to play the long game. Their ability to endure pain is proven, witness the 8-year Iran Iraq War, and our never-ending sanctions. Meanwhile, the entire planet is crashing into a great depression, thanks to our war of choice against Iran.

Iran can wait us out, we can’t wait out a global great depression. We are like the scuba diver with a limited air supply, Iran is the moray eel, playing on his home terrain.

This is not Vietnam, which was a sideshow on the global stage, where we could spend years wasting our blood and treasure. It’s also not Iraq or Afghanistan. This time, we are time-limited as the world sinks into a great depression, and poor nations go into famine, as a result of the greatest unforced blunder in modern military and economic history.

And we didn’t have to fight our way into Vietnam. We sailed right into port and set up bases all across the country. In 1968 we had 550,00 troops and 4,500 combat aircraft based right in South Vietnam. AND WE STILL LOST THE WAR.

Iran is 10X bigger than South Vietnam, with 6X it’s 1968 population. And we’ll have to fight through missiles just to approach and gain a beachhead on Iranian territory.

Or maybe we’ll try some daring land raids, to find Iran’s enriched uranium. Keep in mind the “down pilot rescue” took place relatively close to Kuwait. Iran is six times bigger than Colorado, and even more mountainous. And the uranium may be split up and hidden in mountain fortresses like these, that are impervious to our “bunker busters.”

I’m old enough to experience strong deja-vu when I watch our Pentagon briefings, where they repeat the tired old tropes about bombs dropped and targets hit.

Bracken—Out.

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